Climate change: is agreement at Copenhagen possible?

COP 15 in December 2009 is the latest in the series of UN Climate Change meetings aimed at coordinating international action against climate change.
 
The goal is to establish an ambitious global climate agreement for the period from 2012 when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires.
 
The challenge facing negotiators at Copenhagen is significant. Recent projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warn that unless action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions, global warming will exceed the danger level of a 2°C increase, possibly as early as 2050. Unprecedented coordinated action is required to address this.
 
The international climate change negotiations and their objectives are vitally important, as is having a follow-on agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. Without internationally binding regulations, there will be no effective action to tackle climate change. Taking into account the necessary ratification phase, the conference in Copenhagen is the last opportunity to reach a follow-on agreement that can be entered into force by 2012.
 
Unfortunately, it seems increasingly unlikely that agreement will be reached in time. 
 
At the moment, governments around the world are understandably focusing on jobs and national economies. However, world leaders should view the financial crisis and climate change as intertwined challenges.The financial crisis is an opportunity to invest in low-carbon growth that will be the foundation of long-term sustainable economic prosperity, by investing in energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy and creating lower-carbon growth and green jobs.
 
A new climate change agreement must contain a clear regulatory framework that is valid, ideally until 2030 or 2050. 
 
The level of effort and commitment from developing countries will need to reflect their national circumstances, but they too will need to take action, with appropriate support from developed countries, to put themselves on track to a low carbon economy.
 
China believes it is the responsibility of established industrialised nations such as the UK and US to set an example in cutting carbon emissions, while the US points to the fact that it has been overtaken by China as the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. The US has historically emitted far more than China, and on a per capita basis Chinese emissions are significantly less than those of the US. China is also unwilling to contemplate emissions cuts at a time of rapid economic growth, taking the understandable position that it refuses to be penalised for the West's excesses. This needs to be resolved before meaningful carbon cuts can be agreed to. For Kyoto's successor to succeed, both the US and China have to sign up to it.
 
Governments should agree to a reformed and expanded global carbon market; however, any steps towards a global carbon market must be taken alongside robust monitoring, reporting and verification arrangements.
 
Business has a key role to play in tackling climate change and governments and supranational bodies should support them, by, for example, developing a portfolio of fiscal instruments designed to internalise sustainability impacts in international trade treaties.
 
Finally, leaders should focus on designing markets which promote technological and behavioural responses and on creating laws and regulations that protect the environment without damaging trade.
 
Good laws create market opportunity – we need incentives for positive action.
 
ACCA's recommendations to world leaders in advance of COP 15 can be found here.